2017*During the first two and a half months there will be a lot of political frenzy with the MSM looking for any member-of-parliament-for-sale to buy a new three-quater majority for the so-called Lepep [The People] alliance. The other parties will be watching out for cheap sell-outs.

*The Aboliton of Slavery celebrations on 1 February will be marked by visible signs of an increased antipathy between the MSM and the Creoles.

*The MSM has imprudently created the impression that their government will attain cruise speed in March 2017. By 12 March it will be clear that their capacity to govern has stalled. Failures will include the non-start of the Metro Express [we’ll never know its mysterious difference with the Light Rail System (Metro Leger)].

*In the seven weeks between Independence/Republic Day and Labour Day all parties will be pregnant with anxiety. For all of them their chicken will come home to roost on that day.

*Now for some serious predictions. Labour Day [Fet Travay] on 1 May the four main parties will hold seperate meetings. The meeting location will affect crowd size so, the government, police and local authorities at preferred places will attempt to control who goes where of Curepipe, Vacoas, Quatre Bornes, and Port Louis. The PMSD and PTR should draw quite large crowds while the MMM and the MSM will attract relatively few people. Government interference to hinder meetings of other parties will boost the already strong distrustful mood in the country.

*After the 1st of May meeting the Lepep alliance government will start crumbling and after 3-4 months trying to find allies general elections will be called for November or December 2017.

* If the PTR and PMSD join in an alliance before the election they will win a two-third majority or more. If they run separately but form a coalition after the election they will have a two-third majority or less. In both cases they will share the premiership alternately.

*Don’t believe the fancy predictions you might find elsewhere.

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